Posts Tagged Stock Futures
Today’s Key Market News – REDEMPTION!
Posted by admin in Uncategorized on April 15th, 2010
On the day that hedge funds with a 45-day advance redemption notice face last minute requests from scared silly sophisticated investors, stock futures are down across the board. You see, for the super-wealthy, capital preservation is pretty darn important. First and foremost, before a penny of profit is earned, nobody wants to lose what they have. In this regard, Benjamin Graham had investor psychology nailed, as he sought a margin of safety in any investment consideration. Warren Buffet brought greater light to this investment theology, with his tried and true success over recent decades. We expect that over the coming weeks, news of failing hedge funds will flood the wires. At the same time, these funds will continue pressured to exit their positions, driving shorted bad names higher and owned favored names lower despite intrinsic value, or perceived value.
So, the market could care less right now about July’s Consumer Price Index, which was reported this morning about in line with expectations. Headline CPI rose 0.1% in July, while the core figure, which excludes changes in food and energy, increased 0.2%. Core CPI matched June’s increase, and was up 2.2% over the year ago level. This is not the kind of number to push the Fed in either direction, but it certainly doesn’t show an inflation rate that is headed in the wrong direction. We suspect that as the Fed starts to see Main Street falling apart, it will get it, but it may be too late to stave off recession at that point.
Please find our sidebar “Headline News” section below:
- CNN Money: Credit Jitters Hit Asian Markets
- Financial Times: Banks Drag London Lower
- CNN Money: Europe Antsy Too
- Bloomberg: July Consumer Price Index
- CNBC: Weekly Mortgage Applications Rise
- Forbes: Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) Supporting Alt-A
- Bloomberg: Basis Capital Management Says 80% Lost
- CNBC: Storm Takes Oil Higher
- CNBC: Yen Continues Climb
- Forbes: Sentinel, Sign of a Larger Iceberg
- AP: Commerce Group (NYSE: CGI) Shuts Lending Unit
- Yahoo! Earnings Calendar
- AP/Yahoo!: Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE) Profit Rises
- AP/Yahoo!: Deere (NYSE: DE) Profit Up
- AP/Yahoo!: H.J. Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) Raises Outlook
- AP/Yahoo!: Nestle (NYSE: NVS) Posts 18% Profit Rise
- CNN: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Gets Terror Tag
- Economist: China, Fear of Foreigners
- BBC: Attack on Kurds Kills 200
- Economist: The Geopolitical Week Ahead
- Iran Daily: Tales from the Dark Side
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Thursday’s Brew – Oct 19
Posted by admin in Uncategorized on April 15th, 2010
Enjoy your fresh morning coffee with our summary of the market outlook for the day and a medley of important information you should find useful. Stock futures are mixed today with the NASDAQ and S&P 500 indices lower and Dow futures up a bit.
OVERSEAS
Indices across Asia were mostly lower, as North Korean tensions continue to weigh. The North appears to be preparing for a second test of a nuclear device to validate their efforts after the first test fizzled. Rhetoric from George W. Bush was especially hard this morning, as he spelled out how the U.S. would react to nuclear proliferation, saying their would be “grave consequences” for deliver of weaponry or technology to Iran or Al Qaeda. The NIKKEI 225 Index slipped fractionally, driven partly by sharp falls in select technology shares. The FTSE 100 and the DAX indices were both up just slightly this morning.
ECONOMIC DATA
On tap for Thursday, the Labor Department released its recent data on weekly U.S. jobless claims. Claims were 10,000 lower than expectations, coming in at 299,000, providing more positive news for the market heading into next week’s Fed meeting. The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits was the lowest level in almost three months.
On tap for Thursday, the Labor Department released its recent data on weekly U.S. jobless claims. Claims were 10,000 lower than expectations, coming in at 299,000, providing more positive news for the market heading into next week’s Fed meeting. The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits was the lowest level in almost three months.
Today, the Conference Board, a private research group, will post its composite index of leading indicators for September. The index represents a gauge of future economic activity, and is expected to measure 0.3%. With all the information becoming available this week, the market will weigh one against another in an attempt to gauge what the Fed will do with rates the following week, but more importantly, it will feel out the depth of economic slowdown and date of arrival of recovery.
Also on Thursday, The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia will report on its business-conditions index for October, a measure of the region’s manufacturing sector’s health. In September, an unexpected contraction of 0.4 sparked rallies in stocks and bonds. An expansion of 7.0 points is expected this period, according to Bloomberg.
COMMODITIES
Gold is down approximately $1.70 today, giving back some recent gains as the market weighs the extent of safe-haven necessity and inflation concern in U.S. markets. One analyst speculates gold may trade lower post the Philly Fed data. “Gold may trade lower as the dollar gains; the market is watching for the FOMC meeting,” said Bernard Sin, chief trader at Geneva-based MKS Finance, one of Switzerland’s four gold refiners. There is some concern that U.S. market expansion could raise the dollar and impact gold. However, we feel any short short-term weakness could provide opportunity to purchase gold for a tense medium term in the geopolitical scheme of things.
Crude is slightly higher today, as OPEC’s emergency meeting in Qatar begins. Iran yesterday threatened repercussions to any U.N. sanctions. The Persian nation said it could disallow inspectors again, and we speculate it could even pull out of the NPT. See our discussion yesterday about Israeli preparations for war.
STOCKS
Reporting earnings today, look for Google, Coca Cola and Baxter International highlight the schedule. Apple Computer and eBay both reported solid EPS results, but warned on future outlook. Citigroup also reported better than expected results. We hope you enjoyed “Today’s Morning Coffee” and we wish you a good day trading. (disclosure)
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